Shaw's current deal expires at the end of the season and reports during the international break have suggested United will look to begin negotiations in the new year.
That could become the case, but ScoresStat sources suggest that is not the full picture. United need to be convinced by then that Shaw is a reliable option for them beyond this season.
Boss Michael Carrick remains a big admirer of Shaw, 31, and ideally wants him operating as his first-choice left-back.
The problem is knowing how often Shaw will actually be available. He has already missed games this season, and United remain cautious about relying on him for the long term if his fitness becomes unpredictable.
That makes the rest of this season particularly important.
United hope to see Shaw put together another consistent run of availability and demonstrate that his body can continue to cope with the demands of regular football before committing to a new contract.
If he can do that, there is a route towards an extension.
But if the injury problems continue to crop up and he misses a significant number of games, the situation could look very different.
Any offer could then be significantly different from the terms Shaw is currently enjoying, leaving both player and club with a major decision to make over whether a new arrangement works for the future.
For now, United are not closing the door on Shaw. But neither are they yet ready to assume that he will remain at Old Trafford beyond the end of the season.
Dean Jones has been a transfer news and football insider for ScoresStat since 2025, as well as a journalist for leading UK newspapers and websites over the past 20 years, establishing himself as an authoritative and trusted voice in the industry.
