Two titles in 2026 have changed the story for Alexander Davidovich Fokina, but Tokyo presents an immediate new challenge
Match News and Form
Alexander Davidovich Fokina is in some ways being rewarded for all the heartbreak he experienced last year, despite enjoying the most consistent season of his career in 2025. He lost four title matches, including two in particularly close and painful fashion, leaving him still waiting for his maiden ATP title.
This season has not been the smoothest either, with multiple fitness setbacks affecting his playing time. However, he has finally turned those near misses into titles this year, winning both finals he has contested. His first title came in Mallorca during the grass season, followed by another in Chengdu just a few days ago, where he returned to action immediately after a two-month injury layoff.
Matteo Berrettini has also endured another stop-start season due to fitness setbacks, although he has become accustomed to dealing with recurring physical problems over the past few years. Considering those difficulties, he can still be reasonably content with his efforts, having won 20 of his 37 matches and remained inside the Top 50 in the rankings. After taking a solid period of rest following the US Open, he now returns to action in Tokyo, so the chances of him arriving in a physically strong condition and producing tennis closer to his potential should be higher.
Head to Head: 1-1
Both of their previous meetings came earlier this decade, at Monte Carlo in 2021 and the US Open in 2022. They have won one match apiece, with Berrettini claiming their hard-court encounter.
Stats and Facts
Davidovich Fokina is making his Tokyo debut after reaching the second round in Beijing last year.
Davidovich Fokina has a strong 14-3 record in opening-round matches this year.
Berrettini reached the second round on both of his previous visits to Tokyo, in 2024 and 2025.
Berrettini has an 11-10 record against players ranked higher than him this year.
Betting Analysis
Davidovich Fokina has enjoyed playing in Asia since the early stages of his career, when he produced several impressive winning runs in Asian Challenger events, and he has once again shown his affinity for these conditions by winning the title in Chengdu recently. The form is also firmly on his side, but playing a tournament immediately after winning a title is never easy. It remains to be seen whether the Spaniard is mentally and physically ready to handle that challenge and produce another quality performance in Tokyo.
