Group A1 leaders France host Italy in a blockbuster UEFA Nations League (UNL) encounter, as Les Bleus look to maintain their perfect start to the campaign, while the Azzurri aim to build on their emphatic 4-1 win over Turkey.
Match News and Current Form
Life under Zinedine Zidane could hardly have started better for France, as they followed up their 1-0 triumph in Turkey with a late 1-0 win away to Belgium. Sitting top of Group A1 with two victories and two clean sheets, Les Bleus are well placed to progress beyond the group stage for the third time in the last four editions of the UNL. France could even eclipse their best-ever group-stage performance in this competition in 2020/21, a campaign in which they accumulated 16 points (W5, D1) before going on to lift the trophy, so they will feel confident about returning to home soil, where they are unbeaten in six competitive games (W5, D1).
Roberto Mancini’s second spell as Italy manager got back on track in style as the Azzurri dismantled Turkey to quickly erase the memory of their matchday one defeat to Belgium (2-0). Mancini will now be looking to build on Italy's strong UNL group stage record away from home, as their victory in Turkey was their fifth such consecutive win. There is still plenty of room for improvement though, as Italy have kept just one clean sheet in their last seven competitive games on their travels.
Head-to-Head History
Recent meetings between these two European giants have produced plenty of drama, with the away side on the day winning both encounters 3-1 during the last UNL campaign. That scoreline has now remarkably settled the last four H2Hs (FRA: W3, L1).
Hot Stats and Streaks
France kept a clean sheet in five of their last six competitive home matches.
Five of France’s last six internationals produced under 2.5 goals.
Italy opened the scoring in nine of their last ten matches.
Italy conceded 11 of their last 12 goals after half-time.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Michael Olise was the game-changer for France off the bench against Belgium, with seven of his last eight goals for club or country coming in the second half. For Italy, Francesco Esposito will look to build on the momentum gained from scoring against Turkey, with five of his last six goals for club or country arriving after the break.
Neither side seem to have any fresh absentees.
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Betting Analysis
Given France’s solid start under Zidane coupled with Italy’s proven resilience on the road, a low-scoring contest could be on the cards. Backing under 2.5 goals therefore represents strong value for this high-stakes fixture.
Author: Tomáš Vlasák
